BloombergNEF’s (BNEF) latest quarterly report on solar PV projects forecasts that the world will add nearly 600GW of new capacity in 2024.
In its 3Q 2024 Global PV Market Outlook, the commodity market research organisation has revised its prediction for solar PV additions in 2024 to reach 592GW. At the beginning of the year, BNEF forecasted the solar PV industry to add up to 655GW of capacity and as low as 520GW.
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The latest report expects global capacity installations to reach 592GW in 2024, a 33% increase from last year. Data from trade association SolarPower Europe registered 447GW of installed PV in 2023, up 87% from the previous year. Capacity additions for last year continued to increase as China’s growth skyrocketed and accounted for over half of global solar PV additions last year with 253GW.
China’s pace in adding solar PV continues to be on the rise this year, with over 102GW of capacity added in the first half of 2024. According to data from the Chinese National Energy Administration, this represents a 30.68% yearly growth.
Aside from China’s growth, the low price of module components (Premium access) has been a driver for demand in new markets, such as Pakistan, according to BNEF. Neighbouring country India, has also had a stellar growth so far this year. Market research firms JMK Research and Mercom India have respectively registered 12.2GW and 15GW of PV capacity installed in the first half of 2024 for India. Other markets – Japan and South Africa – on the other hand, have had a slower than expected installation growth, according to BNEF.
The module price decrease has been discussed earlier this year by the chairman of two of China’s largest PV manufacturers, Trina Solar and JinkoSolar. Last May, they highlighted that module price was nearing its bottom, while future demand should enable the industry to turn a corner.
1.2TW PV module manufacturing capacity in 2024
At the upstream level, the industry is expected to reach a global annual nameplate capacity of 1.2TW for modules, while PV modules that can be made from the expected production of polysilicon will reach 900GW in 2024.
Polysilicon prices have fallen under the US$5/kg mark, below production cost and with several manufacturers shutting down factories for maintenance. Chinese polysilicon manufacturer Daqo New Energy was among the companies which sold its polysilicon at a lower average price than its production cost during the second quarter of 2024.
Furthermore, BNEF reports that most solar PV manufacturers are expected to report losses this year, as was the case of three major Chinese manufacturers – LONGi, Tongwei and Aiko Solar – in the first half of 2024.
