The Indian solar sector looks set for significant levels of disruptions over the next two years, with the government’s drive to establish a domestic manufacturing base risking deployment and investments needing to double if it is to meet its climate targets, according to industry analysts.
Module price increases, higher raw material costs and logistical challenges will pull down the return on equity (ROE) for 25GW of India solar projects, with 5GW of those at high risk given when they submitted their bids.
PV module prices in India have increased by ~38% in the last 20 months, in part due to supply chain disruptions and rising solar demand, with prices not expected to fall until the end of next year.
US solar manufacturers can compete with Chinese companies for US PV projects given additional import costs and modules making up less than half a project's costs, while also ensuring a secure supply to the US market, lowering the carbon intensity of products and exploiting strong market demand, says Michael Parr, executive director of the Ultra-Low Carbon Solar Alliance (ULCSA).
Module prices are to remain elevated for the next 18 months at least, with any additional manufacturing capacity set to be quickly swallowed by soaring demand and capacity addition outside of China considered risky, Finlay Colville, head of market research at Solar Media, has said.
Delays in the shipping industry have likely peaked already, with the turnaround time for containers likely to fall month after month moving further into 2022. While the price of moving containers from China to Europe and the US remains very high, they have come down slightly since last year.
With reductions in wafer prices now sustained and further reductions expected, Carrie Xiao assesses the potential for cell and module prices to fall in tandem and speaks to manufacturers and developers in China.
